Sports medicine (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2026 · 系統性回顧＋統合分析（依標題推測）
Incidence, Temporal Trends, and Surgical Shift of Achilles Tendon Rupture: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
踝與足 · 阿基里斯肌腱斷裂
中文閱讀摘要
統合分析顯示阿基里斯肌腱斷裂發病率六十年間上升，男性及中年運動者風險較高，且2003年後手術治療比例下降。
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原始摘要
Background
Achilles tendon rupture is a severe injury affecting active and non-active populations, with considerable consequences on mobility, return to sport, and long-term function. Population-based incidence estimates provide important information for public health policy and resource allocation.
Objective
This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the global incidence of Achilles tendon rupture, evaluate temporal trends over six decades, and analyze subgroup differences by sex, age, region, and sport participation. Additionally, we examined trends in surgical treatment over time.
Methods
A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Six databases (PubMed, CINAHL, Embase, Web of Science, Index Medicus, and Google Scholar) were searched through April 2025 to identify population-based studies reporting Achilles tendon rupture incidence. Only studies based on registries or representative samples were included. Random-effects models were used to pool incidence rates, and meta-regressions assessed time trends and subgroup differences. Incidence rates were calculated per 100,000 person-years and stratified by sex, age, country, geographic region, and sport participation. Surgical treatment trends were analyzed using quadratic meta-regression. Risk of bias was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute tool.
Results
Twenty-eight studies reporting Achilles tendon ruptures from 1950 to 2022 were included, representing over 630 million individuals and 568,000 Achilles tendon rupture cases. The pooled global incidence was 15.7 per 100,000 person-years, spanning from 6.1 in 1979 to 31.1 per 100,000 person-years in 2021, with an average annual increase of 2.7% (95% confidence interval 2.0-3.3%). Male individuals exhibited a three-fold higher incidence than female individuals (pooled ratio 3.18; 95% confidence interval 2.50-4.04). Incidence peaked in male individuals aged 30-49 years (42.6 per 100,000 person-years) and in female individuals aged 40-49 years (17.2 per 100,000 person-years). Approximately 68% of Achilles tendon rupture were sport related. A significant shift in treatment patterns was observed: surgical repair rates peaked in 2003 and declined thereafter, indicating an increase in conservative treatment over the last 2 decades.
Conclusions
The incidence of Achilles tendon rupture has risen steadily over the last six decades, with the greatest burden observed among middle-aged physically active men. A majority of ruptures are sport related, highlighting the need for preventive interventions. Surgical treatment has declined since 2003, reflecting shifts toward conservative management. These findings underscore the importance of continued surveillance, targeted prevention, and individualized treatment strategies to reduce the growing burden of Achilles tendon rupture worldwide.
Clinical trial registration
PROSPERO registration ID: CRD420251020247.
至 Europe PMC 閱讀完整來源 ↗ · 擷取日期 2026-10-19
書目、來源與全文狀態
- DOI
- 10.1007/s40279-026-02397-5
- PMID／PMCID
- 41933260 / PMC13260312
- 作者
- Kotsifaki R, Malliaras P, Byron C, Marques J, Korakakis V
- 首次發表日期
- 2026-04-03Europe PMC 提供，部分日期可能依年份或月份推定。
- 卷／期／頁碼或文章編號
- 56 ／ 6 ／ 1467-1487
- 書目來源與查核日期
- Europe PMC · 2026-10-19僅核對書目欄位與來源連結；不代表已評讀研究品質。
- 全文與授權
- 來源列有免費全文（查核 2026-10-19），未逐篇測試 PDF 下載。 來源授權標示：cc by。
可回溯引用
Kotsifaki R, Malliaras P, Byron C, Marques J, Korakakis V. Incidence, Temporal Trends, and Surgical Shift of Achilles Tendon Rupture: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. Sports medicine (Auckland, N.Z.). 2026;56(6):1467-1487. PMID: 41933260. PMCID: PMC13260312. doi:10.1007/s40279-026-02397-5
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